THE BIG "T" PART 3

The first post time approached at some of the simulcast tracks. Jim reviewed odds on the telescreens for several tracks, referred back to his racing form, shook his head. and muttered, "No bargains here." He slurped some of his coke.
I watched as lines started building at the clerk's windows. Few people seemed interested in the autobetting machines. "I'll be right back," I told my monkey boy.I got up and went over to the windows and listened to some of the hopefuls giving their betting instructions to the clerks.
" First at Calder, daily double, first race, 1-3-7 slash 2-4 and exacta box 1-3=7."
"$5 dollars win the 3."
"Superfecta 2 over the 3-6 pver the 3-6-7 over all."
And on and on. Money exchanged hands for little slips of paper. The variety of ways to invest, and I use that word with some trepidation, were legion.. I returned to our table.
"How come you're not betting? " I asked Jim.
'The odds aren't right, " he replied. "Most of these people are playing the game wrong.
"How so?"
"Look," he went on, "most of these people think it's about picking winners. They make their selection then bet, despite the odds. That's just plain stupid. What you can do is make an intelligent estimate of a horse's chances to win. This is what makes the game playable. It's about picking wagers. not winners."
"You see the house doesn't make the odds. The other bettors do. The track takes a huge 18 % cut of the pool then returns the rest to the winners. The lucky. The smart. So you need to be able to estimate the true likelihood of a horse winning and compare that to the odds the other players are giving you. add a point or two for safety and bet only when you're given a bargain."
" With an 18% cut coming out it doesn't happen often. But when it does, " his eyes narrowed and a predatory grin crossed his face, " you pounce. You have an overlay, you bet to win."
"I see," I nodded. " What about these other wagers. Superfectas and doubles and such?"
"Mostly sucker plays. The track take goes up to 25%, an even bigger nut to crack. And you need multiple things to go right, not just one. What's worse, if you hit a biggie the IRS takes a 20% cut. Yuck! For fun I might try an occaisonal double or exacta, but when you play for keeps, bet to win."
We stayed for several more hours. The form, I noted, had information on horse running at 6 tracks, 61 races in all. The big monkey boy left the table a total of 7 times, always with just a couple minutes to post. Each time he bet one horse, $2 dollars to win.
7 horses, 7 wagers, 5 losers, 2 winners. A $6.40 profit. The form cost $5, the hot dogs and coke $7. Then their was the time spent. It didn't make sense.
As we left I mentioned that the money won didn't meet the expense."
"It's not about the money," replied the ape. " It's about playing the game and winning."
I pondered the attitude. Somehow, in so many ways, it seemed to pervade monkey boy society.
As we headed for the exit I took a final glance at the telescreens. At Belmont the 5 horse was about to go off at 8 to 1. I estimated it's true chances at 3 to 1.
"Just a minute," I said.
I headed for a betting window....

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